Welcome to the first Minnesota Timberwolves mailbag of the 2023-24 season.
As I write this on Nov. 21, the Wolves lead the Western Conference with a 10-3 record, tying the 2001-02 team for the best 13-game start in franchise history. Obviously a lot has gone right – there is a legitimacy to these Wolves, especially on defense – that seems sustainable as we move past the feeling-out stage and enter into the meat of a season that has already offered up a number of surprises and league-wide parity. As usual, your questions were generally thoughtful and probing and gravitated toward roster construction in both the short-term, game-to-game situations this season, and in years ahead when the front office will be compelled to make decisions that juggle absorbing enormous cost while being subjected to new luxury tax restrictions, or parting with some extremely valuable players.
Questions have been paraphrased or updated for clarity and concision. I appreciate the engagement and the intelligence. So let’s get started.
Sorting the rotation this season
Depth assessment? Is Shake (Milton) a reasonable option at backup point guard? Peter Frost @peterfrost
Should it be time for Troy Brown Jr. to get some Shake minutes? Peter Lecy @Pjledcy
There seems to be a growing concern with backup point guard play. Is there a solution on the current roster (Slo Mo [Kyle Anderson]? Ant [Anthony Edwards]? J-Mac? [Jordan McLaughlin])? If not, what realistic option could the Wolves look into? Christian Burnes @burnsickle
I know he’s the 8th or 9th man, but how urgent should the Wolves concern be about Shake Milton? Should they give NAW (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) all his minutes, try to replace him, or what? No.9653 @DrSoxDrSox
No question that Shake Milton, signed as a free agent to a two-year, $10-million contract this summer after five seasons in Philadelphia, has been the biggest disappointment among Wolves players thus far. When I spoke to Head Coach Chris Finch before the season started, he was enthused about Milton being a multifaceted combo guard who could score, defend with physicality, and distribute the ball well enough to be considered as a backup point guard.
But after a promising preseason, Milton’s unreliability off the dribble has already forced the Wolves to reduce his initiation of the offense. His assist-to-turnover ratio is at a career-low, and he is shooting less frequently and less accurately than any year since his rookie season. It has affected his confidence, especially as it relates to his decision-making and rhythm.
But the bottom-line stats, especially as it pertains to dirty work, are less disheartening, and better than the eye test. On a per-minute basis, Milton is registering career highs in rebounding (particularly on the defensive glass) and steals. His physicality has enabled the Wolves to limit opponents to 104.8 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court, versus 106.5 points per 100 possessions allowed overall. While he doesn’t seem like the answer at backup point guard, his career history and the Wolves initial high opinion of him portends him staying in the rotation long enough to settle down, get out of his own head, and find his rhythm.
So, what happens at the point? Starter Mike Conley is 36 years old, yet valuable enough that his minutes need to be treasured wisely. McLaughlin is out indefinitely with a knee sprain. Like Milton, Brown Jr. lacks the handle to be a true point guard and hasn’t shown enough offense in limited minutes, although the defense has been diligent. Alexander-Walker has become the nominal backup point guard, and although he is more secure with the ball than Milton or Brown Jr., opponents sense vulnerability and routinely start guarding him before he gets to the midcourt. And with Jaden McDaniels now out with a sprained ankle, NAW may become the starting small forward.
The real backup point guard is Anderson, who is questionable if bringing the ball up but arguably the best passer on the team once the Wolves are in their half-court sets. Finch has a fierce and abiding belief in his decision-making skills and penchant for settling the team down with his patented deliberation and efficient execution.
Is that enough? Edwards, who leads the team in assists, was also mentioned as a fill-in point guard, but it is not likely the Wolves will add that to his existing burden. Many of you wondered out loud about acquiring a better fit – Tyus Jones, TJ McConnell and Monte Morris were among the names mentioned. I’m not in the habit of discussing trades in the abstract – there are too many variables we don’t know – but in the ratio of value and potential availability, I like Morris the best of that trio.
Expect Finch to continue relying upon Conley and Anderson as much as possible, and supplementing the need for ball-handling with a committee of NAW, Milton, and Brown Jr., at least until J-Mac returns, or until the committee falters and a more drastic solution is required.
Naz (Reid) has played less than 20 minutes the past four games. I think he needs more than 25 to really make his mark. KAT (Karl-Anthony Towns) and Rudy (Gobert) are playing at a really high level. How should Finch approach Naz’s role and minutes going forward? Because of matchups in the playoffs, I think the Naz-KAT chemistry is as important as the KAT-Rudy chemistry.
brucegelin @brucegelin
The decision to retain Naz over the next four years for $52-million was something of a surprise, given the logjam in the frontcourt. But Finch and President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly wanted to double down, and be “all-in” on large, skilled bigs playing bully basketball.
That said, the priority was always going to be the Gobert-KAT pairing. Despite significant strides forward this season, the tandem’s skill sets still aren’t naturally synergistic. Among the top 10 player-pairings in terms of minutes together, Gobert and KAT have the lowest net rating (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions) at plus 6.1. But plus 6.1 remains is a pretty clear advantage and it being the “lowest” is a testimonial to the Wolves success thus far.
After a phenomenal start, Naz has cooled off in the past handful of games, most notably missing a bevy of open three-pointers in the past two contests (as of Tuesday). Some of that is confidence – like NAW (and Milton thus far), Naz’s can allow doubt to besmirch his performance – and below 20 minutes of playing time may be a contributing factor.
But Naz is playing about as often as Finch expected, and is exceeding Finch’s expectations, especially on defense. He has often thrived in an up-tempo style, and has really shined in the rotations when Ant stays on the floor with the second unit –the Wolves’ net rating of plus 18.5 when the two share the court is phenomenal, and helps explain why he is a fan favorite.
In this case, however, there is no point in messing with the status quo. The Wolves are plus 12.5 when Naz is paired with KAT, plus 6.5 when Naz is paired with Rudy. It is a bit of a concern that he and Slo Mo create a paired net rating of minus 0.5 and have the 12th highest paired minutes thus far this season. But too much else is going right, for the Wolves and for Naz, to shuffle the frontcourt beyond necessary tweaks such as the McDaniels injury.
What’s a bigger need for this roster, a versatile shooter or a back-up point guard? Levi Austin @LeviAvstin
Back-up point guard, in my opinion, but the two are related, which might increase the urgency to make a change if the team wasn’t playing so well overall.
Let’s take three-point shooting. As of Tuesday, they were 25th in total three-point attempts and makes but 16th in accuracy from deep – the only team to match the NBA average of 36.0%. But the problem is not with the starters. All of them (besides Gobert, who doesn’t shoot them) are making at least 37.1% from behind the arc.
The biggest outlier is Slo Mo, who is making just 20% on many fewer attempts after eclipsing 40% on his treys last season. But the backup point guard committee is also lacking here. Milton and Brown Jr. shot 37.8% and 38.1%, respectively, last season, and at least 35% for their careers. But this season Milton is shooting 24% and Brown Jr. 10%. NAW’s 37.2% showing is another reason why he owns the backup PG if and when McDaniels returns and J-Mac doesn’t from their injuries.
The future cost and hard decisions that come with a successful roster
Looking ahead to the offseason, would you trade KAT/Gobert/both/neither? If you could only retain one of Conley or Slo Mo, who would you choose? Aaron (Wolves Back) @Perrywinkle1267
This is the best distillation of more than a dozen questions that shrewdly recognize the sobering fact that the Wolves’ payroll is about to explode even as the contracts of their two most reliable veterans are set to expire at the end of this season.
The Wolves have tied up their two young, cornerstone starters, Ant and McDaniels with large contracts that extend through the 2028-29 season. Gobert is on a maximum contract that extends for two years after this one; KAT has a “supermax” deal that escalates up to nearly $65-million in the 2027-28 season alone. If Ant makes All NBA this season – a distinct possibility at the moment – he will also get kicked into “supermax” salary territory.
Under the new NBA salary guidelines, the more and longer a team spends on payroll that exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the greater the penalties on their ability to execute some of the basics of team building and roster construction. Without getting into the weeds on specific numbers and thresholds, a team increasingly loses its flexibility to engineer trades, to acquire players with the “mid-level” exception, and to use first-round draft choices as currency in trades.
Given their current spending level on contracts already committed, the Wolves appear headed past the luxury tax threshold next season. How much financial penalty and operational restrictions they want to endure will determine if they will try to re-sign Anderson and/or Conley after the contracts expire at the end of this season.
As we have just discussed, the Wolves currently don’t have a good option for replacing Conley as the team’s starting point guard. And Anderson was regarded by Finch as the Wolves most important player last season and is once again an invaluable Swiss Army knife both for team flexibility and quick-fix composure adjustments during this highly successful season to-date. Failing to sign one of them would be injurious. Letting both walk feels like a disastrous short-circuiting of what finally appears to be a team able to compete for a championship.
Keeping both Conley and Slo Mo would almost certain require parting with Gobert, KAT, or, less consequentially, Naz Reid, who is getting approximately $14 million per season for two years after this one. (The final year is a player option.)
My answer to this question is a cop-out, but one that is entirely justifiable. I’m waiting to see what happens between now and the 2023-24 trade deadline (Feb. 8) and perhaps even the end of the season. Trading KAT by February would set the salary parameters for the deal around KAT’s current contract instead of the supermax extension that kicks in after the season is over – it makes a deal more viable. But that only provides an extra 35 games of sample size, instead of the 69 extra games between now and the end of the season. Besides, as of now, anyway, KAT is enjoying a spectacular season.
KAT is mentioned not because he is or should be most likely to be moved, but because the coming bump in salary is a mitigating factor. The point is that by February, and even more certainly by the end of the regular season in April or the playoffs in June, the Wolves will have a much better idea what level of risk is prudent to retain the current players on the roster – and a better idea of who can or needs to be sacrificed if sacrifices are required.
Right now that is an excruciating decision. One would assume Ant is sacrosanct. The youth of McDaniels plays into Ant’s timeline. That leaves two issues: Can you shrink the three bigs down to two; and if you have to keep one of the stellar vets, who do you lose?
Those are incredibly compelling questions that will linger over the greater performance of this team throughout the season. But right now it is too soon to say. The only thing we know for sure is that the most enjoyable and successful start of a Wolves season in more than 20 years is making the issue more momentous and more expensive. It is a great problem to have – the inevitable cost of success in the modern NBA – but growing pains that will sting even as the thrills sustain.
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